The Pentagon's future weapons and technology strategy is referred to as the "Third Offset."
There’s been a lot of talk about a Third Offset Strategy at the
Defense Department lately. It’s part of Defense Secretary Ash Carter’s
plan to make sure the U.S. military remains the world’s finest fighting
force.
The Third Offset Strategy has a number of parts to it, so at first
glance, it may appear complicated. Lucky for you, my job was to break
down some of the more technical aspects into layman’s terms.
The Sodium Guidestar at the Air Force Research Laboratory’s Starfire
Optical Range resides on a 6,240 foot hilltop at Kirtland Air Force
Base, New Mexico. The Army and Navy are developing their own laser
weapons systems. (Air Force photo)
Basically, an offset strategy is part of a long-term competitive
strategy; a peacetime competition between rival defense establishments
that aims to generate and sustain strategic advantage. Offset strategies
are not about formulating a general unified theory for armed conflict.
They instead aim to bolster and extend U.S. conventional deterrence
against great powers able to produce or acquire technologically advanced
weapons systems.
It’s how we strengthen our military’s competitive edge. Offset
strategies are not solely about technological approaches, although all
offset strategies have a powerful technological component. They are
about finding the right combination of technologies and operational and
organizational constructs to achieve decisive operational advantage and
thus bolster conventional deterrence.
It’s something we’ve done successfully twice before.
The First Offset began during the early 1950s at the start of the
Cold War. The Soviet Union had a geographical advantage over the U.S. in
Western Europe, so we exploited our nuclear superiority to overcome it,
miniaturizing our nukes to about the size of a football. It was an
effective strategy until the Soviets caught up to us in the nuke game.
That’s when we moved into…
The Second Offset of the 1970s and ’80s, where we focused on
conventional munitions with near-zero miss, precision-guided weapons and
the joint battle networks that employed them. The key drivers to this
strategy were information technologies and the digital microprocessor
that changed the game in terms of sensors and the weapons carried by our
platforms.
A Grumman F-14A Tomcat from VF-14 prepares to launch from John F.
Kennedy’s No. 2 catapult on Aug. 28, 1975, during the ship’s
Mediterranean deployment. (Navy photo by Mate 3d Class T. Beitz)
Since then, however, we’ve seen a reemergence of “great power”
competition – particularly with China and Russia. Simply put, both are
catching up to us in military capabilities, and both are investing
heavily in Second Offset technologies, as well as cyber and electronic
warfare that could erode the enormous advantages we’ve enjoyed in
conventional warfare.
So it’s time for a Third Offset Strategy. As it has been in the past,
technological and operational innovation will be the key to it.
Maintaining – and in select areas, extending – our competitive,
technological and operational advantages is not a purely quantitative
contest vis-à-vis these nations. Rather, the U.S. must seek asymmetric
advantages that capitalize on its strengths and exploit adversary
weaknesses.
The Third Offset Strategy harnesses our intellectual activity in a
way that transcends any particular technological trend. But research
points us in the direction of five common technological-operational
components:
Deep-Learning Systems
These machines would be used for indications and warnings in cyber
defense, electronic warfare attacks and large-density missile raids when
human reactions just aren’t fast enough. They would also be used for
big-data analytics; for example, a deep-learning system might be able to
analyze 90,000 Facebook post made by ISIL in one day, crunch that data
and find patterns from it, pulling out what might be of use.
The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency is also working on two programs, Adaptive Radar Countermeasures and Behavioral Learning for Adaptive Electronic Warfare.
They can, for example, help EA-18G pilots whose equipment has sensed an
unknown radar signal figure out how to take care of it during the
mission instead of having to bring that information back to its base for
analysis.
Human-Machine Collaboration
This teams up human insight with the tactical acuity of computers by
allowing machines to help humans make better, faster decisions. Pairing
the two will combine the ability of humans to think on the fly with the
quick problem-solving methods of artificial intelligence.
Current examples of this are unmanned underwater vehicle systems and the Aegis weapon system - a naval system that uses computers and radar to track and guide weapons to destroy enemy targets.
There’s also the F-35 which, when fully developed, will be a flying
sensor that can take in a huge amount of data, analyze it and then
display it on the pilot’s helmet, allowing him to make better
decisions. 
Human-Machine Combat Teaming
While the above collaboration helps humans make better decisions,
human-machine combat teaming actually works with the unmanned systems to
perform operations.
Two current examples of this are the Army’s Apache helicopter and Gray Eagle Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, and the Navy’s P-8 aircraft and Triton UAV. Both are designed to operate together.
There are also swarming UAV’s like the Perdix mini-drone, which has a
3D-printed airframe and electronics made from cellphones. Only about a
foot long, the Perdix can be launched from an unmanned aircraft and fly
in close proximity to several identical drones, communicating with them
to complete a mission.
Assisted Human Operations
These are pretty easy to understand: They’re wearable electronics,
combat apps, heads-up displays and even exoskeletons that can help
warfighters in all possible contingencies.
At the Air Force Research Lab, they’re perfecting skin biosensors
that look and feel like a Bandaid, except they’re equipped to read all
sorts of data, like your heart rate, hydration and other vital signs.
Basically, assisted human operational components will be like that
back-up sensor in your car that beeps when you’re getting close to
hitting something — it’s assisting you in driving the car.
A U.S. Army MQ-1C Gray Eagle unmanned aerial vehicle armed with
Hellfire missiles prepares to take off from Camp Taji, Iraq, Feb. 27,
2011. Army photo by 1st Lt. Jason Sweeney
Network-Enabled, Cyber-Hardened Weapons
This component is also pretty simple – it’s the prioritization of cyber-security.
Everything’s online today – we all know that – which means every
weapon and system will have to be prepared for cyber-attacks. For
example, the DoD is modifying existing systems, like the small-diameter
bomb, to operate completely without GPS if an enemy is somehow able to
deny it service.
While the Second Offset Strategy had only one opponent – the Soviets –
the Third Offset Strategy will focus on the advanced capabilities that
multiple opponents might eventually bear in a high-end conflict. If we
stay ahead of them in that game, it can give us an edge across all
military operations.
There’s a lot more to the Third Offset Strategy, of course, that will
be discussed as we figure out how to use the above systems and operate
them together. But for now, just know that the integration of human
thinking and artificial intelligence is going to be the key to the Force
of the Future